According to @Andre_Dragosch, Polymarket users assign an 80% probability that the Clarity Act will be signed into law this year, indicating high market-implied odds on U.S. crypto regulation progress; source: Andre Dragosch on X citing Ryan Rasmussen, Jan 13, 2026. The bill cleared the House last year and is currently moving through the Senate with committee markups expected this week, setting a near-term legislative timeline for event traders; source: Andre Dragosch on X citing Ryan Rasmussen, Jan 13, 2026. Key sticking points under discussion are stablecoins (yield treatment) and DeFi (developer protections), which define the core regulatory contours for crypto markets if enacted; source: Andre Dragosch on X citing Ryan Rasmussen, Jan 13, 2026.

According to @Matt_Hougan, the CLARITY Act is a pivotal market catalyst, with passage and enactment potentially driving crypto to new all-time highs while a failure in Congress could extend the downturn, source: Matt Hougan on X, Jan 12, 2026. He cited that Polymarket pricing implies an 80% probability the bill is signed into law this year, that it cleared the House last year, and that Senate markups are expected this week, source: Ryan Rasmussen on X, Jan 12, 2026, referenced by Matt Hougan on X, Jan 12, 2026. The key sticking points are stablecoin yield and DeFi developer protections, which frame the near-term focus for traders on the Senate markup timeline and final language of these provisions, source: Ryan Rasmussen on X, Jan 12, 2026; Matt Hougan on X, Jan 12, 2026.